REUTERS/Toby Melville

A fishing boat on the ground near the Knysna lagoon during a severe drought in parts of the Western Cape, South Africa, February 7, 2026. REUTERS/Esa Alexander

Our read

The case for understanding SRM is being made by the climate itself. A record energy imbalance, a fading 1.5°C goal, and the prospect of a super El Niño are compressing timelines. The SRM conversation is expanding – from human rights frameworks to conservative policy positions – and the range of actors engaging is widening fast. What we're watching: to what extent new constituencies and issue areas actively start developing SRM policy. 

A warming world

Record heat and a fading target

The World Meteorological Organization's 2025 State of the Global Climate Report emphasised that the Earth's energy imbalance is now at its highest level on record. More heat is entering the system than leaving it, driving a sustained rise in global temperatures and increases in extreme weather. One consequence is rising ocean temperatures, with potential knock-on effects for global food systems.

Compounding the trend, forecasters warn that a "super El Niño" over the next year could push temperatures to new records and intensify droughts and flooding worldwide. Meanwhile, a scenario analysis by Resources for the Future concludes that the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C is now "no longer plausible".

As these risks mount, so do questions about what SRM could – and couldn't – address. Hussain et al. find that stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) could limit future increases in the spread of malaria across much of South Asia by avoiding the warmer conditions that enhance transmission.

Tipping points: from climate models to financial models

New observational evidence is strengthening the case that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) – the system of currents that helps regulate climate across much of the Northern Hemisphere – is weakening. As New Scientist reports, a study analysing buoy measurements at four latitudes in the western Atlantic found the AMOC declined by roughly 10% between 2004 and 2023 – the strongest direct evidence yet that the system is slowing.

And the consequences of collapse could be worse than previously understood. Another study covered by New Scientist found that AMOC shutdown could trigger the release of up to 640 billion tonnes of CO2 from the deep Southern Ocean – a feedback loop that would accelerate warming further. At current CO2 levels, the study suggests collapse would likely be irreversible.

We took a closer look at the AMOC in a live discussion with experts Laurie Laybourn, David Thornalley, and John Moore last month. Watch Could Solar Geoengineering Prevent AMOC Collapse?

These risks are no longer confined to climate science. J.P. Morgan published a new framework for pricing tipping point risk, arguing that once firms think on 30-year horizons, events like AMOC collapse become financially significant – and that markets don't need a tipping point to actually occur for repricing to begin.

Conspiracy theories surround extreme weather in India

Unseasonal rain in Delhi triggered a wave of conspiracy theories across social media, with viral claims linking the weather to chemtrails. Indian media outlets debunked the claims, confirming the rain was caused by a well-documented Western Disturbance – a winter storm system that travels from the Mediterranean Sea.

With conspiracy theories spreading, understanding what shapes public attitudes matters. Koski & Manson find that in the US, political leanings had surprisingly little influence on attitudes towards SRM, while cultural affinities had strong effects – egalitarians, for instance, were more supportive of SRM than other respondents.

Governance, rights, and power 

The United Nations General Assembly Hall, New York. ZUMA Press Wire via Reuters Connect.

The UN looks at SRM through a human rights lens

The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has issued a call for input on the human rights implications of climate technologies, including solar geoengineering. The call comes amid growing evidence that extreme heat now affects one in three people globally, with poorer countries facing dramatically higher risks despite contributing the least to the problem.

The forthcoming OHCHR report aims to offer concrete recommendations on applying human rights law to the development, testing, and deployment of climate technologies. This follows a 2023 Human Rights Council Advisory Committee report that described SAI as "ungovernable" and recommended restrictive regulations on SRM experiments.

Stardust sets its own rules – but is that governance?

The US–Israeli venture Stardust Solutions released a new set of guiding principles and technical proposals for the safety and controllability requirements it claims its deployment system will one day meet. A piece in The Atlantic highlighted concerns that the organisation is writing its own rulebook in the absence of an international framework – and experts argued that self-authored principles are no substitute for credible governance.

Stardust's case highlights a broader concern: as SRM advances, so do questions about how power over the technology is distributed. Möller & Young examine SRM as an instrument of political power, exploring non-cooperative and worst-case scenarios, drawing lessons from nuclear politics and the Covid crisis, and calling for more research into non-ideal outcomes.

Think tanks continue to engage

The Texas Conservative Coalition Research Institute (TCCRI) became the third right-leaning think tank in the span of a month to release a report on SRM. It frames SRM as a possible alternative to a rapid fossil fuel phase-out, arguing that such a transition would involve "staggering costs" – particularly for the energy companies central to Texas's economy.

And it's not just conservative voices entering the conversation. Woodwell Climate Research Center – a leading US climate research institution – published a statement from its president, Max Holmes, calling for serious engagement with SRM research. "The only thing crazier than talking about solar radiation management is not talking about it", wrote Holmes, while stressing that Woodwell is not advocating for deployment.

Does advancing SRM change the political calculus on emissions? Cherry et al. explore this through a social dilemma experiment, finding that SRM initially led to increased cooperation on emissions cuts – but that this effect reversed as the technology became more effective and less risky.

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